Pandemija Covid-19 i kriminalitet u Srbiji 2020. godine

Abstract

Predmet rada je analiza stanja kriminaliteta u Srbiji 2020. godine sa ciljem utvrđivanja eventualnog uticaja pandemije korona virusa (Covid-19) na kriminalitet. U tu svrhu korišćeni su različiti podaci. Autorka najpre vrši analizu stope prijavljenih lica za celokupni kriminalitet u državi kao i po regionima, a predstavljena je i stopa pojedinih krivičnih dela. Radi dobijanja preciznije slike, predstavljeni su i podaci iz policijskih evidencija za najveće gradove u Srbiji po mesecima u 2020. godini. Pored toga, urađena je i prognoza kretanja pojedinih krivičnih dela za grad Beograd i tako dobijeni podaci upoređeni sa stvarno registrovanim krivičnim delima. Zaključeno je da je došlo do smanjenja kriminaliteta i to u većoj meri kod imovinskih nego nasilnih krivičnih dela. Procenat smanjenja varira i među regionima i među analiziranim gradovima. Što se tiče prognoziranja pojedinih krivičnih dela, najveće procentualne razlike i to upravo u periodu vanrednog stanja ustanovljene su između predviđenih i registrovanih krivičnih prijava za zloupotrebu položaja odgovornog lica, krađu i nasilničko ponašanje.

This paper examines c rime in Serbia in 2020 when the actual Covid-19 pandemic has started. The first part of the paper is dedicated to presentation of relevant literature which analyzed crime during the pandemic in different countries. Further, the author gives and in depth analyses the theoretical background, first and foremost theories of environmental criminology, that could explain changes of crime due to the different social circumstances. The second part of the paper deals with crime rate in Serbia in 2020 in comparison to previous years. Data used stem from two sources. Firstly, annual crime rate is calculated by using judicial statistics whereas monthly presentation of criminal charges is based on police statistics. This is due to the fact that judicial statistics in Serbia contain only annual crime data. Secondly, the author has used ARIMA program to make crime forecasts for the capital city of the Republic of Serbia and for this analysis police statistics have been used. Results show that the general crime rate in Serbia has dropped for 20% in comparison to 2019. Variations between state regions are observable and for example Vojvodina region records the decrease of 12.7% whereas Šumadija and Western Serbia the decrease of 25.4%. Also, crime rate was calculated for several criminal offences: homicide and aggravated homicide, rape, domestic violence, violent behaviour, theft, aggravated theft, robbery, abuse of power of the responsible person in the economy. Apart from homicide and aggravated homicide (the crime rate calculated together), all other criminal offences recorded a decline in 2020 in comparison to 2019 and this was especially evident for the abuse of power of the responsible person in the economy, aggravated theft and robbery. With respect to police statistics, we presented monthly data of criminal charges for three criminal offences (theft, aggravated theft, domestic violence) in 2020 for four cities: Belgrade, Novi Sad, Kragujevac and Niš. The data are presented in absolute numbers. When it comes to theft and aggravated theft, the lowest number of criminal charges in all cities was recorded in April, when the decision on the state of emergency was in force. Since the middle of the year and after the abolishment of the state of emergency, there has been a noticeable trend of increasing of criminal charges for theft and aggravated theft in all cities. Domestic violence hasn't followed such a trend. Only in Belgrade the lowest number of filed criminal charges was recorded in April, while in other cities this happened in the period September-October. Finally, the author uses ARIMA model to make comparison between expected and recorded criminal charges for homicide and aggravated homicide, rape, domestic violence, violent behaviour, theft, aggravated theft, robbery, abuse of power of the responsible person in the economy in the city of Belgrade. We used police data for the period January 2015-February 2020 as a base for crime forecasts for the period March-December 2020. In the lockdown homicide and aggravated homicide were recorded slightly less than expected whereas these crimes were evidently higher in the period May-August. All other criminal offences recorded lower values than expected. The greatest discrepancy was noticed in the lockdown (April-May). The recorded value was almost for 100% lower for abuse of power of the responsible person in the economy than expected, 70% for violent behaviour and theft, 50% for robbery and 40% for aggravated theft. The recorded number of criminal charges for domestic violence was for 25% lower in April than expected. After the lockdown, all criminal offences recorded higher values but, except from homicide and aggravated homicide, these values were still generally lower than predicted.